My Content

Coronavirus

Gimme Shelter In Place (Ep. 250)

This episode looks at the new shelter-in-place culture and then answers the burning Bernie Bros. question, “where’s Joe Biden?” (Hint: you’re not looking hard enough.)

1918 or 1929? (Ep. 249)

This episodes looks at the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus outbreak and the status of the Democratic primary race in a Covid-19 world.

The Economics of COVID-19: How to Build the New Normal (UPDATED)

by D.J. McGuire

Today, Americans are undergoing dramatic social and economic changes as a result of the coronavirus, with some of the more dramatic affects still to come.

The crisis will either “go big” (a massive spike in cases that overwhelms our medical industry and forces life-and-death choices on a massive scale) or “go long” (an extended period of social distancing to prevent the former). I shouldn’t comment very much on the medical impacts, as I am not an expert in the field, and I have grown in humility to the point where I will avoid commenting where I think I shouldn’t.

The economic impacts, however, are also dramatic, and here I’d like to think I can offer more useful advice and ideas. There are calls for a very dramatic increase in government spending, which is understandable. However, we can also make sure that the economic assistance that is planned can be done in ways that preserve the concept of limited and efficient government.

Moving from the Welfare State to a Negative Income Tax

One thing this crisis should do is force a complete review of the 20th-century welfare system currently in place. A system incentivizing people to work for someone else may have made sense in the large-industry era of the 1950s, but with small business formation on a downward slope even before COVID-19, it is no longer fit for purpose. We need to ask ourselves if we really want a large and intrusive government taxing the rich for the purpose of regulating the poor.

In the short term, this can be addressed via either direct payments to Americans or (as I would prefer) an expanded unemployment insurance system that allows for 100 percent of lost wages paid and removes employment-search requirements. Whichever option is taken (and it is likely Congress will use both), they can and should be used to transform our current patchwork of programs into a simple Negative Income Tax as proposed by Milton Friedman. This would ensure government aid to those hard on their luck is more efficiently sent, less expensive to taxpayers, and no longer discouraging entrepreneurship.

If the Fed insists on lending, let more businesses borrow from them

Of course, the above reform won’t mean much to businesses that are in trouble as a result of social distancing. Many industries have been asking for bailouts. Ironically (but understandably), the American people are much more likely to support aid to businesses that are too small to make their voices heard. Meanwhile, there are already arguments about whether the funds should be given as loans, equity purchases, or no-strings payments.

While I reserve the right to change my view on this particular matter, it appears to me that one option is being overlooked: the Federal Reserve. To be clear, I have problems with the Fed’s recent actions. I don’t think moving away from interest rate normalization was particularly helpful (and if the Dow Jones was any indication, I’m not alone).

Nor do I think the de facto return to quantitative easing makes sense from a monetary policy perspective. However, if the Fed is determined to monetize debt wherever it can be found, we should make it easier for smaller businesses to sell bonds. Larger corporations should find it quite easy to loan to a lend-mad Fed (indeed, this is reason enough for any discussion of corporate “bailouts” to be given serious skepticism). Smaller firms shouldn’t be left out of the buying spree. This doesn’t necessarily rule out the need for temporary government support for small businesses, but it should at the very least make it less urgent.

Regarding Health Care Economics: End COPN and Re-engineer Medicaid

One of biggest factors in the push for social distancing has been the danger of overwhelming our health care capacity. If health care supply is a concern (and it is), governments need to get out of the business of restricting it. Certificate of Public Need regimes have been shown to make health outcomes worse even before COVID-19 showed up. The idea that any future hospital or health care facility needs to prove a “need” in the aftermath of COVID-19 is patently absurd.

UPDATE: Governor Northam suspended COPN requirements for hospitals to add beds over the weekend (Patch).

That said, the health care market has one unique characteristic that leads to trouble – a complete lack of credit checks for services rendered. Hospitals in Virginia have complained about this for years – mainly, as the excuse for maintaining COPN to compensate them with oligopolistic power. It has also been one of the reasons hospitals tend to be more sanguine about government-provided universal health insurance (albeit not in a manner as unrealistic as “Medicare for all”).

Unfortunately, much of the discussion about health insurance has been focused on the unique problems of poor Americans, rather than the unique problems of sick Americans. In property and casualty insurance, there is no such confusion: the threat of flooding is such a danger that private insurers won’t touch it unless it’s via the National Flood Insurance Program.

A similar mindset in health insurance would dramatically improve the industry. It would allow healthy Americans (including poor Americans) the chance to buy insurance they could use, while the government would provide a backstop for Americans with problematic health conditions. If initial reports on COVID-19 are accurate, many more Americans will fall into the latter category as a result of the virus. Shifting government-supported health insurance from income to illness would be more practical and more sensible.

Limited government can survive the pandemic, but like everything else, it must adapt

The above measures would, I hope, enable government to be dynamic enough to address the economic effects of the crisis without sacrificing either the dynamism of freer markets or the concept of limited government. Yes, government spending and power will grow in some ways, but they can (and should) be reduced in others. If we do this right, we can transform and revitalize our governments, rather than merely expand them.

D.J. McGuire – a self-described progressive conservative – has been part of the More Perfect Union Podcast since 2015. He is also a contributor to Bearing Drift.

Covid-16 Is Infecting 2020

By Kevin Kelton

You wouldn’t knowingly risk infecting someone important to you with the coronavirus. Yet millions of thoughtless Democrats are infecting their party’s presumptive nominee.

Every day, we see reckless Democrats passing on the germs of dirty politics to Joe Biden. They selfishly cough up words like “dementia,” “handsy,” “corporate-owned,” and even high-risk terms like “pedophile” into the air of social media, spreading those deadly labels into the body politic, much like was done to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Let’s be clear: Joe Biden is not Hillary. But he is just as suseptible to the same gutter character attacks that made millions of normally Democratic voters avoid the polls that year, killing her candidacy. It could be called Covid-16, and it was just as deadly as coronavirus germs are on your unwashed hands.

Four years later, it’s time for disappointed progressive voters to face reality. Whether you supportered Sanders or Warren or Buttigieg or Yang, Biden is going to be the Democratic candidate this Fall. He earned it fair and square, pulling off one of the greatest political comebacks in history. Not only did his one-on-one debate with Sanders prove he isn’t hobbled by age, it clearly demonstrated his mettle as a viable candidate and a strong leader.

And with his latest thumping of Sanders across Florida, Illinois, and Arizona (along with Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Texas, and North Carolina) he proved he can replicate the same coalitions that led to the blue wave of 2018. There is little doubt Biden will continue that success in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, and probably Wisconsin – virtually running the table in the swing states the party will need to hold come November 3.

Consider a second Trump term the political equivalent of the coronavirus, because it could literally kill thousands of LGBTs, Dreamers, seniors, pregnant women, service members, undocumented immigrants, POC, and other high-risk groups. Every time you infect Joe’s reputation with claims he may be suffering from dementia or some similarly untrue character smear, you risk spreading that idea to others. Your Facebook friends read it, then they spread it to their friends, and they spread it, until you have an epidemic of people turning off to Biden and staying home in November.

You might as well go phonebank for Trump, because that’s exactly what you’re doing with your social media posts.

It’s time for progressives to put some social media distance between them and the virus of hate that can kill our party’s chances in November. Irresponsible character attacks are our Covid-20. If you chose to be a carrier and infect this election cycle like so many did in 2016, don’t be surprised when you send your dearest issues – climate change, reproductive rights, economic inequality, and LGBT rights – to an early grave.

Kevin Kelton is the founder of the Open Fire community of Facebook discussion groups and a cohost of The More Perfect Union Podcast.

 

 

But He Persisted (Ep. 248)

 

This episode looks ahead at the primaries in Florida, Illinois, Arizona and (maybe) Ohio, and other news that isn’t necessarily about Trump.

VP Stakes (Ep. 247)

 

This week’s podcast looks at the two man race between Biden and Sanders, who would make a good VP choice for Joe, how the CoronaVirus could change the way we live, and the long-term impact of Trump’s new truce deal with the Taliban.

One Week To Iowa (Ep. 241)

This episode looks at the ongoing senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump, the final days before the Iowa caucus, the Coronavirus, and the public response to the sudden passing of Kobe Bryant.